CLIMATE CHANGE: Misinformation on climate science rebutted, corrected

climate-changepollutiondroughtChris Mooney offers some clarity to George F. Will ‘s anti-global warming posturing in a Washington Post column.

George Will meticulously crafted an editorial regarding global warming, but his assertions amounted to mere misleading anti-global warming architecture or rhetoric. As a result, Will’s misleading and false claims were widely debunked.

At this point, politicians should be focusing on remedies to climate change and not whether it exists or not.

Humans inject pollution and waste into creeks, rivers, oceans, soils, and the air. The impact on these ecosystems is readily observable, especially when our health is affected. Consequently, the vast majority of public accepts that when people pollute the air and water, this will translate into negative consequences for the environment and our health (it’s common sense); so why wouldn’t extracting, converting, and pumping millions of tons of hydrocarbons (coal, crude oil and natural gas, etc.) into the atmosphere yearly impact the Earth and its climate?

Certainly, there is no such thing as a free lunch. From the Washington Post:

Consider a few of Will’s claims from his Feb. 15 column, “Dark Green Doomsayers“: In a long paragraph quoting press sources from the 1970s, Will suggested that widespread scientific agreement existed at the time that the world faced potentially catastrophic cooling. Today, most climate scientists and climate journalists consider this a timeworn myth. Just last year, the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society published a peer-reviewed study examining media coverage at the time and the contemporary scientific literature. While some media accounts did hype a cooling scare, others suggested more reasons to be concerned about warming. As for the published science? Reviewing studies between 1965 and 1979, the authors found that “emphasis on greenhouse warming dominated the scientific literature even then.”

Yet there’s a bigger issue: It’s misleading to draw a parallel between “global cooling” concerns articulated in the 1970s and global warming concerns today. In the 1970s, the field of climate research was in a comparatively fledgling state, and scientific understanding of 20th-century temperature trends and their causes was far less settled. Today, in contrast, hundreds of scientists worldwide participate in assessments of the state of knowledge and have repeatedly ratified the conclusion that human activities are driving global warming — through the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the scientific academies of various nations (including our own), and leading scientific organizations such as the American Association for the Advancement of Science, theAmerican Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society.

Will wrote that “according to the University of Illinois’ Arctic Climate Research Center, global sea ice levels now equal those of 1979.” It turns out to be a relatively meaningless comparison, though the Arctic Climate Research Center has clarified that global sea ice extent was “1.34 million sq. km less in February 2009 than in February 1979.” Again, though, there’s a bigger issue: Will’s focus on “global” sea ice at two arbitrarily selected points of time is a distraction. Scientists pay heed to long-term trends in sea ice, not snapshots in a noisy system. And while they expect global warming to reduce summer Arctic sea ice, the global picture is a more complicated matter; it’s not as clear what ought to happen in the Southern Hemisphere. But summer Arctic sea ice is indeed trending downward, in line with climatologists’ expectations — according to the Arctic Climate Research Center.


Photo source for attribution here, here, and here. The authors or licensors of these images do not endorse my work or me and their images are protected under an attribution license.

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FISHERIES: Shrinking fish, shrinking catches

atlantic-flounderatlantic-codAlthough fishing gear selectivity is important in preventing the overfishing of certain fish stocks, the use of fishing gear with a selective mesh size over time, on some species, is thought to have negative consequences on the overall genetic health of some fish populations (some type of fishing gear are regulated to have a minimum mesh size, thus when used, the gear “selects” only larger fish above a certain size).  Likewise, targeting the largest fish—especially the large, breeding females—seems to be resulting not only in smaller fish sizes but smaller catches too.

The problem with some selective fishing gear (fishing gear can be modified to achieve a wide range of conservation objectives, such as preventing the capture of sea turtles, reducing marine mammal interaction, or selecting larger fish) is that over time, fishing effort will remove too many large female fish, which are thought to be genetically superior and have a higher fecundity than younger fish. The idea of conserving larger, older, breeding female fish is called the “Big Old Fat Fecund Female Fish (BOFFFF) hypothesis.”

To remedy this problem, the importance of marine reserves is being stressed. Rob Inglis at The New Republic has a piece on the problem of shrinking fish:

[O]ne of the most unfortunate (but also most scientifically interesting) consequences of overfishing is that it can cause fish to shrink. Smaller fish are better able to slip through the holes in fish nets and therefore survive to pass on their genes rather than ending up as fish sticks. As a result, heavily-harvested fish populations—especially in places that have minimum net mesh size requirements designed to let a certain fraction of fish escape—tend to evolve toward smaller average body sizes. This is bad for both fishermen and fish eaters, given that larger fish tend to have more usable meat and fetch better prices.

.       .       .

[E]ven after the selective pressure on a fishery is relaxed, recovery could take decades. And getting rid of fisheries-induced selective pressure towards smaller fish means doing things like establishing no-fishing marine reserves that act as gene banks. In many places, that could turn out to be a real political challenge.

MPA News expands (PDF file) on the idea that conserving larger, older female fish is important to maintaing more healthy and robust fisheries and fish populations.

Modern fisheries management has often guided fishermen to select the large individuals of targeted stocks, either by using size-selective gear or releasing small individuals back to the water. The reasoning has been that this allows smaller, younger individuals to grow up to reproductive age, thereby sustaining the stock.

Recent research, however, shows that removing the larger, older individuals of a population may actually undermine stock replenishment. This appears especially to be the case for removal of larger, older females, which often produce significantly more offspring — and sometimes stronger offspring — than younger females do.

Some researchers have proposed the idea that maintaining old-growth age structure can be important for replenishing fished populations. It is termed the Big Old Fat Fecund Female Fish (BOFFFF) hypothesis.

.       .        .

The BOFFFF hypothesis arose largely from the recent work of biologists Alan Longhurst on population structure of Atlantic cod and Steven Berkeley on maternal effects in Pacific rockfishes. The hypothesis is based on documented cases of older, larger female fish producing more young per year — often exponentially more — than younger females. The larvae of these older females may also be larger, with greater fat reserves that can aid growth and survival. In several species of rockfish, for example, larvae from older females both grow faster and survive starvation longer than larvae from younger fish. (Rockfish birth their young as larvae, with attached egg yolks; the yolks’ oil serves as the fat reserve.) Older females can also have earlier and/ or longer spawning seasons than younger, smaller females, and the fact of their longer lives may allow them to outlive periods of low larval recruitment.

Timothy M. Caro in “Behavioral Ecology and Conservation Biology” provides further insight:

Fecundity and spawning biomass are key parameters in fisheries management, and are often measured, yet they are vulnerable to misinterpretation without an understanding of the behavioral ecology of the species, population, or individual. Direct exploitation usually places greatest pressures on larger individuals, whether target species or bycatch, if only because of gear selectivity such as the mesh size of nets . . . . Extracting larger females can have a disproportionately large impact on reproductive output relative to change in biomass because egg number tends to increase allometrically with female body size . . . . Moreover, remaining females may mature when younger and smaller, with consequent decrease in fecundity . . . . We therefore need to understand behavior patters that might increase the probability of extracting larger fishes or influence our estimates of egg production and fertilization rates.

Understanding the relationship between large female removal and reproduction often relies on behavioral work. If females of different sizes breed at different times or places, then fishing schedules could greatly affect the impacts of exploitation on populations. . . .

Can these impacts be reversed? From Scientific American:

As people continue to go after the biggest fish in the sea, global fisheries are shrinking—both in number and in the actual body size of their catches. But that rapid evolution can be reversed, according to a new 10-year study published today in the journalProceedings of the Royal Society B.

Previous research has shown that the size of plants and animals harvested from the wild—from cod to ginseng—is actually decreasing two and a half times the rate Mother Nature would dictate. Many scientists pin this on the human tendency to go after the biggest and best food—and our technological ability to do so with extreme efficiency. Although the new study shows the changes are reversible, it also found that the return to normal size was much more gradual, probably taking more than twice as long as the original downsizing.

“There’s a good news story in that the evolutionary changes are not permanent—on a contemporary timescale,” says David Conover, lead study author and a professor of marine sciences at Stony Brook University (S.B.) in Long Island, N.Y. “But the bad news is that it’s slow.”

Images by Buck Denton. Note the tagged Atlantic cod. The flounder species are (from left to right) summer, yellowtail, and winter flounders.

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RECOMMENDED IMAGE(S) from the Hubble Space Telescope

You can view some amazing images from the Hubble Space Telescope at Hubblesite.

saturn-moon

Image found here.

galaxies

Image found here.

interacting-galaxies

Image found here.

Planetary Nebula NGC 2818

Image found here.

galactic-center

Image found here.

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ENERGY: Acting Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Chairman Wellinghoff discusses transmission siting, and what the smart grid means to FERC

smart-gridPart of President Obama’s energy policy is to develop more renewable energy. However, it can be tricky to get renewables on the grid. Since states have jurisdiction over transmission siting, there is no  uniform national policy. Furthermore, a smart grid would be more renewable friendly, and it can save energy. As a result, the federal government wants jurisdiction over transmission siting, but how much authority should FERC be given on transmission siting? Currently, jurisdiction over electric transmission siting is left to the states. From E&ETV’s “OnPoint”:

Monica Trauzzi: There’s a big debate happening right now in Congress and among state regulators over how much authority FERC should be given on transmission siting. And in a recent hearing Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Ranking Member Senator Murkowski said she was concerned about giving FERC a job that the states, working collaboratively, could do better. Why should FERC be granted this authority and is this a situation where the states really could do a better job?

Jon Wellinghoff: Well, I think actually in that same hearing Senator Dorgan put his finger on it. What we’re trying to do ultimately is accomplish the job and the job is ultimately to take location constrained renewable resources that are distant from load centers and move them to those load centers in an efficient, effective way, but do that using as little federal authority as possible. I think that’s the challenge. So we all agree and I would be the first one to agree we can’t steamroll the states. We cannot go over their authority. We need to involve them and incorporate their ideas and their concerns as much as possible. But, on the other hand, if you have an interstate transmission line that’s set up for a national public purpose that is getting renewables developed, because we certainly need to develop them from an environmental, from an economic, and from a security standpoint, and we have one state standing in the way, we need to have some way to overcome that. So I think we need to look at how to put that in a prospective so that the federal government, if necessary, could step in, but only will do so as a last resort.

.       .       .

Monica Trauzzi: And one thing that’s come up recently is that there’s an absence of standards and policies relating to the smart grid. There’s also a lack of cohesive terminology. There are some questions about what to call the various components and this is something that Energy Secretary Chu has highlighted in the past. What is FERC doing to resolve this and how quickly are we going to be overcoming this challenge?

Jon Wellinghoff: Well, I think there is a lack of understanding in what the smart grid means. FERC is currently looking at providing some direction for that. And I think in the next couple of days, actually very soon, you’ll see the potential of some specific documents that could come out of FERC that could provide more direction for the evolution of standards for the smart grid and for defining what the smart grid is intended to do.

For more information, watch the video here or read more of the transcript here.

The image above is from Jeff Sterba’s (of PNM solutions) PowerPoint presentation: “Innovation in the Power Sector”

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UNDERWATER ARCHAEOLOGY: Ancient fish trap found off coast


An ancient fish trap that now functions as a reef has been discovered from aerial photography. It is thought that the large ancient anthropogenic structure trapped anadromous fish species that used the River Teifi at Poppit in Pembrokeshire during a time when sea levels were much lower. From the BBC:

Dr Ziggy Otto, lecturer in the coastal zone and marine environment research unit at Pembrokeshire College, said: “There can be but little doubt that this rather impressive – and quite apparently man-made – structure is an ancient fish trap.

“The structure is entirely underwater (at all stages of the tide); it has never been surveyed, but is approximately 260m long, and is possibly made of locally quarried rock, although use of boulders carried in during the last glaciation cannot be ruled out either.

“Its age is unknown, but because of its now entirely sub-tidal position, this fish trap is very old, possibly dating back more than 1,000 years, when sea level was lower and the entrance to the Teifi Estuary further towards the Poppit side.”

.       .       .

[T]he rocks forming the trap are now covered in worms, algae and sea anemones.

“This fish-trap has therefore metamorphosed from an entirely man-made structure to a naturally functioning reef, which adds to the biological diversity not only of the local area but also to that of the Cardigan Bay Special Area of Conservation as a whole,” [Jennifer Jones, a scientific diver] added.

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