Summer Arctic ice could completely disappear within a few decades say researchers, and changes to Arctic environments are increasingly becoming more evident and severe. According to researchers, the Arctic is “a warmer place with less thick and more mobile sea ice, warmer and fresher ocean water, and increased stress on caribou, reindeer, polar bears and walrus in some regions.” This new research highlights the urgency for meaningful Copenhagen negotiations and outcomes in December amongst participants. To promote action on climate change, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is urging “member nations . . . to reach a compromise ahead of [the] climate change summit scheduled for December in Copenhagen and called on the United States to stay engaged.”

Furthermore, climate is so complex—what drives it and what impacts it—that certain phenomena can contribute to or mitigate warming in the long- and short-term. For example, after a particular tipping point is reached, positive feedback loops, which seem synonymous to the domino effect, can set off a series of events that can increase the coming climate crisis. More form Paul Krugman:

The prognosis for the planet has gotten much, much worse in just the last few years.

What’s driving this new pessimism? Partly it’s the fact that some predicted changes, like a decline in Arctic Sea ice, are happening much faster than expected. Partly it’s growing evidence that feedback loops amplifying the effects of man-made greenhouse gas emissions are stronger than previously realized. For example, it has long been understood that global warming will cause the tundra to thaw, releasing carbon dioxide, which will cause even more warming, but new research shows far more carbon locked in the permafrost than previously thought, which means a much bigger feedback effect.

The result of all this is that climate scientists have, en masse, become Cassandras — gifted with the ability to prophesy future disasters, but cursed with the inability to get anyone to believe them.

Video:

More video via Grist: Arctic Sea Ice 101: Video illustrates typical positive feedback loop:

More on Arctic melting and the resulting positive feedback loop:

This increase in first year ice is happening as more and more multi-year ice is melting. In the winter, new (first -year) ice is forming, which of course is thinner than ice that has been forming over several years. The problem is that thinner ice is melting faster than thicker ice. So we are in a typical positive feedback loop: the more ice is melting, the thinner will be the remaining ice, the fastter that ice is melting…

You might wonder why all this is worrisome. Quite a few people think that it is a great thing that the Arctic sea-ice will be melting, because we can then have shorter shipping routes, and we can have access to unexploited oil reserves. Indeed, this will bring amazing riches to a few people – over the short-term.

However, over the long-term the melting of the Arctic could be disastrous, as it triggers a positive feedback loop that could greatly warm our planet. And here is why:

The Arctic sea-ice functions as a huge fridge to our earth, because the sun’s rays are being reflected from the ice to 80-90%. However, when the sun’s rays hit water, their energy is absorbed by about 80%, and the water heats up. The more ice is melting, the more water is forming, the more heat is absorbed; thus, more ice is melting, so that there is even more water surface which absorbs more heat…if this positive feedback loop causes the permafrost to melt faster, then another feedback loop will be added to the mix as greenhouse gases are released from the permafrost.

We need to avoid such positive feedback loops if we want to avoid creating an earth that will not represent the earth as we know it today. And we can only avoid those feedback loops if we act quickly and courageously to create an energy future that is void of any fossil fuels.

On the Net:

1. “Studies have shown that global climate change can set-off positive feedback loops in nature which amplify warming and cooling trends“
2. COP15 United Nations Climate Change Conference Copenhagen 2009

Image Found Here

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