CLIMATE CHANGE: As the hacked e-mail controversy spins, the Earth continues to warm

As climate change disbelievers cynically spin and take advantage of the so-called Climategate controversy, the Earth’s climate, landscapes, and oceans continue to change due to anthropogenic influences. These data and observations point to a warming earth: (1) the earth continues to warm as CO2 rises, resulting in a greenhouse effect—in fact “the decade of the 2000s will end as the warmest ever on global temperature charts;” (2) the Arctic continues to warm and Arctic sea ice continues to melt and set records, as the U.S. Coast Guard is forced to patrol further north and the region is closed to fishing (consequently, observations are prompting policy decisions); (3) for people living in the Arctic region, such as the Inuit, coastal erosion is claiming villages and livelihoods as (4) sea levels continue to rise; (5) the Greenland Ice Sheet continues to melt faster than expected; (6) the Arctic tree line continues to advance north as the Earth warms; (7) tundra melting is increasing and consequently, the tundra is becoming greener, but a dangerous feedback loop is also occurring; (8) upward migrations of alpine species are observable, as are latitudinal migrations of animals such as birds and mammals; (9) glacial melting continues to increase; (10) oceans are becoming more acidic with time as atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide increase (in fact, “the oceans have absorbed about 50% of the carbon dioxide (CO2) released from the burning of fossil fuels, resulting in chemical reactions that lower ocean pH”); (11) ocean acidification has negative impacts on calcifying organisms, thus ocean food chains; and (12) desertification is expanding as the Earth warms. Yet cynics, politicians, pundits, and liars such as Sarah Palin, George Will, and Jim Inhofe, continue to immerse themselves in willful ignorance. The situation is heartbreaking, because denialism has certainly resulted in lost opportunities and time. Where were these denialists when the Bush II Administration was actively suppressing climate change data and muzzling government scientists? Where were the cynics when fake lobbying letters were tied to coal and power companies? Their behavior is revealing. From Scientific American:

Arctic sea ice continues to dwindle—as do glaciers across the globe; average temperatures have increased by 0.7 degree Celsius in the past century and the last decade is the warmest in the instrumental recordspring has sprung forward, affecting everything from flower blossoms to animal migrations; and the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases continue to rise, reaching 387 parts per million in 2009, a rise of 30 percent since 1750.

Nor has the fundamental physics of the greenhouse effect changed: CO2 in the atmosphere continues to trap heat that would otherwise slip into space, as was established by Irish scientist John Tyndall in 1859. “There is a natural greenhouse effect, that’s what keeps the planet livable,” noted climate modeler Gavin Schmidt of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) during a Friday conference call with reporters organized by the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank. “Without it, we’d be 33 degrees Celsius colder than we are. That’s been known for hundreds of years.”

.       .       .

In fact, nothing in the stolen e-mails or computer code undermines in any way the scientific consensus—which exists among scientific publications as well as scientists—that climate change is happening and humans are the cause. “There is a robust consensus that humans are altering the atmosphere and warming the planet,” said meteorologist Michael Mann of The Pennsylvania State University, who also participated in the conference call and was among the scientists whose e-mails have been leaked. “Further increases in greenhouse gases will lead to increasingly greater disruption.”

Some of the kerfuffle rests on a misreading of the e-mails’ wording. For example, the word“trick” in one message, which has been cited as evidence that a conspiracy is afoot, is actually being used to describe a mathematical approach to reconciling observed temperatures with stand-in data inferred from tree ring measurements.

Climate Cover-Up tracks the aggressive global warming denial movement to frustrate climate science and obscure the debate on climate change. From DeSmogBlog:

Starting in the early 1990s, three large American industry groups set to work on strategies to cast doubt on the science of climate change. Even though the oil industry’s own scientists had declared, as early as 1995, that human-induced climate change was undeniable, the American Petroleum Institute, the Western Fuels Association (a coal-fired electrical industry consortium) and a Philip Morris-sponsored anti-science group called TASSC all drafted and promoted campaigns of climate change disinformation.

The success of those plans is self-evident. A Yale/George Mason University poll taken late in 2008 showed that — 20 years after President George H.W. Bush promised to beat the greenhouse effect with the “White House effect” — a clear majority of Americans still say they either doubt the science of climate change or they just don’t know. Climate Cover-Up explains why they don’t know. Tracking the global warming denial movement from its inception, public relations advisor James Hoggan (working with journalist Richard Littlemore), reveals the details of those early plans and then tracks their execution, naming names and exposing tactics in what has become a full-blown attack on the integrity of the public conversation.

The attempt to access private e-mails and spin climate change data goes beyond hacking. From Climate Progress:

It has now been reported that the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Center is not the only victim of such a criminal invasion: burglars and hackers have also attacked the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis at the University of Victoria in British Columbia:

Andrew Weaver, a University of Victoria scientist and key contributor to the Nobel prize-winning work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says there have been a number of attempted breaches in recent months, including two successful break-ins at his campus office in which a dead computer was stolen and papers were rummaged through.

These attacks go beyond simple burglary. University of Victoria spokeswoman Patty Pitts told the National Post “there have also been attempts to hack into climate scientists’ computers, as well as incidents in which people impersonated network technicians to try to gain access to campus offices and data.”

For thirty years, defenders of a pollution-based economy have intimidated, smeared, and suppressed climate science, using a playbook perfected by the tobacco industry and Karl Rove. Now — as the United States, led by President Barack Obama, finally appears ready to join the world in the fight against global warming — the opponents of reform are resorting to criminal desperation, harkening back to the paranoia-fueled extremes of Richard Nixon.

However, do to exaggeration, the so-called Climategate may turn against climate change deniers. More from mongabay.com:

Even the Washington Post, which has come under fire from climatologists for publishing several op-eds by George Will denying climate change, has stated that “none of [the emails] seriously undercuts the scientific consensus on climate change” and “by our reckoning — and that of most scientists, policymakers and almost every government in the world — the probability that the planet will warm in the long term because of human activity is extremely high, and the probability that allowing it to do so unabated will have disastrous effects is unacceptably large”.

Also in the Washington Post, science historian and author of The Discovery of Global Warming, Spencer Weart, calls the belief in a conspiracy on climate change “extraordinary and, frankly, weird”. He explains that “in blogs, talk radio and other new media, we are told that the warnings about future global warming issued by the national science academies, scientific societies, and governments of all the leading nations are not only mistaken, but based on a hoax, indeed a conspiracy that must involve thousands of respected researchers”.

Video: Climate change denialists, whether amateurs or professionals like FOX NEWS or Rush Limbaugh, should do their due diligence before jumping on the conspiracy bandwagon (e.g., completely read, research, and fact check the claims:

On the Net:

  1. Portions of Arctic Coastline Eroding, No End in Sight, Says New Study


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GREENHOUSE GASES: EPA to announce that greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare

An endangerment finding from the EPA would be a win for Copenhagen. More from The Hill:

EPA is expected to issue a formal finding today that greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare, which sets the stage for the agency to regulate the emissions under its existing power.

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The so-called endangerment finding stems from a major 2007 Supreme Court decision that enables EPA to limit the emissions if it finds that greenhouses gases are indeed a danger. The agency issued a preliminary finding in April.

The EPA announcement could also give U.S. negotiators more leverage at the international climate talks in Copenhagen that begin today, demonstrating domestic action even though Congress has not completed a final bill to curb emissions.

Of course the so-called United States Chamber of Commerce doesn’t support an endangerment finding, because the Chamber believes that climate change regulations will hurt businesses. However, the impacts of climate change—and from environmental degradation and exploitation—will cost (and is currently costing) small businesses and families. The Chamber’s positions are shortsighted and lack prudence, because their position on climate change isn’t based on the science and observations of what’s really occurring. From the New York Times:

The move gives President Obama a significant tool to combat the gases blamed for the heating of the planet even while Congress remains stalled on economy-wide global warming legislation.

The E.P.A. finding also will allow Mr. Obama to tell delegates at the United Nations climate change conference that began today in Copenhagen that the United States is moving aggressively to address the problem.

.       .       .

Industry groups and the United States Chamber of Commerce have objected to the proposed regulations, saying they would damage the economy and drive jobs overseas. Some groups are likely to file lawsuits challenging the new regulations, which could delay their effective date for some years.

Thomas J. Donohue, the president of the Chamber of Commerce, said that the endangerment finding “could result in a top-down command-and-control regime that will choke off growth by adding new mandates to virtually every major construction and renovation project.” He said that his group supports “rational” federal legislation and an international agreement to control global carbon emissions.

Update: EPA officially announces endangerment finding:

Video: EPA: Greenhouse Gases Endanger Human Health:

On the Net:

  1. EPA: Greenhouse Gases Threaten Public Health and the Environment / Science overwhelmingly shows greenhouse gas concentrations at unprecedented levels due to human activity
  2. TODAY: Administrator Jackson to Make Significant Climate Announcement
  3. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

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VIDEO: Samsø: Denmark’s renewable energy island

In terms of applying prudent energy policy here in the United States, we can certainly do what Samsø is doing on a much larger scale. More from Popular Science:

Samso — about 30 miles long and 15 miles across — began its trek toward sustainability in 1997, and in just over a decade has erected 21 electricity-producing wind turbines and a heating system fueled by wood chip- and straw-burning furnaces bolstered by multiple small, unobtrusive solar panels. The 11 one-megawatt onshore turbines alone produce more than the island’s total electricity consumption (and enough power to offset 690,000 gallons of oil), while the 10 offshore turbines produce enough power to cover the island’s entire transportation energy budget. Excess power is invested into new energy projects.


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ARCTIC MELTING: “Climate change is happening faster in the Arctic than any other place on Earth — and with wide-ranging consequences”

Arctic Sea IceSummer Arctic ice could completely disappear within a few decades say researchers, and changes to Arctic environments are increasingly becoming more evident and severe. According to researchers, the Arctic is “a warmer place with less thick and more mobile sea ice, warmer and fresher ocean water, and increased stress on caribou, reindeer, polar bears and walrus in some regions.” This new research highlights the urgency for meaningful Copenhagen negotiations and outcomes in December amongst participants. To promote action on climate change, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is urging “member nations . . . to reach a compromise ahead of [the] climate change summit scheduled for December in Copenhagen and called on the United States to stay engaged.”

Furthermore, climate is so complex—what drives it and what impacts it—that certain phenomena can contribute to or mitigate warming in the long- and short-term. For example, after a particular tipping point is reached, positive feedback loops, which seem synonymous to the domino effect, can set off a series of events that can increase the coming climate crisis. More form Paul Krugman:

The prognosis for the planet has gotten much, much worse in just the last few years.

What’s driving this new pessimism? Partly it’s the fact that some predicted changes, like a decline in Arctic Sea ice, are happening much faster than expected. Partly it’s growing evidence that feedback loops amplifying the effects of man-made greenhouse gas emissions are stronger than previously realized. For example, it has long been understood that global warming will cause the tundra to thaw, releasing carbon dioxide, which will cause even more warming, but new research shows far more carbon locked in the permafrost than previously thought, which means a much bigger feedback effect.

The result of all this is that climate scientists have, en masse, become Cassandras — gifted with the ability to prophesy future disasters, but cursed with the inability to get anyone to believe them.

Video:

More video via Grist: Arctic Sea Ice 101: Video illustrates typical positive feedback loop:

More on Arctic melting and the resulting positive feedback loop:

This increase in first year ice is happening as more and more multi-year ice is melting. In the winter, new (first -year) ice is forming, which of course is thinner than ice that has been forming over several years. The problem is that thinner ice is melting faster than thicker ice. So we are in a typical positive feedback loop: the more ice is melting, the thinner will be the remaining ice, the fastter that ice is melting…

You might wonder why all this is worrisome. Quite a few people think that it is a great thing that the Arctic sea-ice will be melting, because we can then have shorter shipping routes, and we can have access to unexploited oil reserves. Indeed, this will bring amazing riches to a few people – over the short-term.

However, over the long-term the melting of the Arctic could be disastrous, as it triggers a positive feedback loop that could greatly warm our planet. And here is why:

The Arctic sea-ice functions as a huge fridge to our earth, because the sun’s rays are being reflected from the ice to 80-90%. However, when the sun’s rays hit water, their energy is absorbed by about 80%, and the water heats up. The more ice is melting, the more water is forming, the more heat is absorbed; thus, more ice is melting, so that there is even more water surface which absorbs more heat…if this positive feedback loop causes the permafrost to melt faster, then another feedback loop will be added to the mix as greenhouse gases are released from the permafrost.

We need to avoid such positive feedback loops if we want to avoid creating an earth that will not represent the earth as we know it today. And we can only avoid those feedback loops if we act quickly and courageously to create an energy future that is void of any fossil fuels.

On the Net:

  1. Studies have shown that global climate change can set-off positive feedback loops in nature which amplify warming and cooling trends
  2. COP15 United Nations Climate Change Conference Copenhagen 2009

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