PEAK OIL: You should be worried

Peak OilWe use oil throughout society. For example, it’s in the goods we use, and it supplies energy to make our cars move. No doubt, as a civilization, we’ve been lucky to have access to crude oil as a cheap and readily accessible energy source, because it has spurred economic growth and technological innovation. We even use oil to produce and deliver wind turbines and solar panels, and these things in turn capture renewable energy. However, reliance on this cheap energy source has its consequences, so perhaps oil has made things too easy.

As a result, there are several reasons why we can’t continue to burn fossil fuels: (1) it’s a nonrenewable energy source with a high energy content, so it should be strategically conserved and used as needed; (2) burning oil, or the products that are made from crude oil such as gasoline and diesel, release pollutants into the atmosphere, thus making the air we breathe dirty (Los Angeles is synonymous to congested traffic and the resulting smog); and (3) carbon dioxide is released when we burn fossil fuels such as oil, and increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide creates a warming effect. No doubt, in order to avoid economic and social crises, the smartest policy would be to quickly move away from our dependency on oil. Certainly, passing substantive climate change legislation, modernizing our electricity grid to a smarter grid, implementing meaningful renewable energy portfolios, and producing sustainable alternative fuels, in addition to promoting energy conservation, can be remedies to our dependency on oil and alleviate the pain of peak oil. From Roger Diamond:

Peak oil follows this scenario as there is a finite amount of oil in the earth and until now we have been producing more and more every day, which has allowed economic growth based on growth in available energy and oil being the primary energy source for our society. Between 2005 and 2015 we have or will probably experience peak oil. From then on, energy is not so easy to get.

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Peak oil is not about suddenly having no power and no goods — it’s about having less and working harder to get that smaller amount. Enter EROEI — energy return on energy invested. The original large oil reservoirs exploited in the first half of the 20th century had EROEI of over 100:1. That means for every joule of energy you spent digging, drilling, processing and transporting you got more than 100 joules in return. It’s a bit like working for one hour and being paid enough money to cover your expenses for 100 hours. The easy life!

EROEI on oil shales, tar sands, deep oil and other remaining oil-like resources is less than 10:1 and even down at levels like 3:1 or worse. The results of this are that high-energy activities or products are going to go up in price, substantially. Think of flying, cement, aluminium, cars, hi-tech gadgetry, imported goods and virtually everything we take for granted in the average suburban Westernised existence.

Your life is going to change and the sooner you can prepare yourself for it, the better. This is not a doomsday prediction of instant civil war and living off cans of dog food. Just be warned that the oil age will wane and our lives will change along with it. Maybe for the better?! It all depends on our capacity to work and change together.

Peak OilMore peak oil analysis comes from Lester Brown at TreeHugger:

One way the oil prospect can be analyzed is by separating the world’s principal oil-producing countries into two groups—those where production is falling and those where it is still rising—is illuminating. Of the 23 leading oil producers, output appears to have peaked in 15 and to still be rising in eight. The post-peak countries range from the United States (the only country other than Saudi Arabia to ever pump more than 9 million barrels of oil per day) and Venezuela (where oil production peaked in 1970) to the two North Sea oil producers, the United Kingdom and Norway, where production peaked in 1999 and 2000 respectively. U.S. oil output, which peaked at 9.6 million barrels a day in 1970, dropped to 5.4 million barrels a day in 2004—a fall of 44 percent. Venezuela’s output has dropped 31 percent since 1970.

The eight pre-peak countries are dominated by the world’s leading oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Other countries with substantial potential for increasing production are Canada, largely because of its tar sands, and Kazakhstan, which is still developing its oil resources. The other four pre-peak countries are Algeria, Angola, China, and Mexico.

The biggest question mark among these eight countries is Saudi Arabia. Its production technically peaked in 1980 at 9.9 million barrels a day and output is now nearly 1 million barrels a day below that. It is included as a country with rising production only on the basis of statements by Saudi officials that the country could produce far more. However, some analysts doubt whether the Saudis can raise output much beyond its current production. Some of its older oil fields are largely depleted, and it remains to be seen whether pumping from new fields will be sufficient to more than offset the loss from the old ones.

This analysis comes down to whether production will actually increase enough in the eight pre-peak countries to offset the declines under way in the 15 countries where production has already peaked. In volume of output, the two groups have essentially the same total production capacity. If production begins to fall in any one of the eight, however, world output could decline.

Another way to consider oil production prospects is to look at the actions of the major oil companies themselves. While some CEOs sound very bullish about the growth of future production, their actions suggest a less confident outlook.

One bit of evidence of this is the decision by leading oil companies to invest heavily in buying up their own stocks. ExxonMobil, for example, with the largest quarterly profit of any company on record—$10.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2005—invested nearly $10 billion in buying back its own stock. ChevronTexaco used $2.5 billion of its profits to buy back stock. With little new oil to be discovered and world oil demand growing fast, companies appear to be realizing that their reserves will become even more valuable in the future.

Closely related to this behavior is the lack of any substantial increases in exploration and development in 2005 even with oil prices well above $50 a barrel. This suggests that the companies agree with petroleum geologists who say that 95 percent of all the oil in the world has already been discovered. “The whole world has now been seismically searched and picked over,” says independent geologist Colin Campbell. “Geological knowledge has improved enormously in the past 30 years and it is almost inconceivable now that major fields remain to be found.” This also implies that it may take a lot of costly exploration and drilling to find that remaining 5 percent.

Images found here and here

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CONSERVATION TIP #1: Understand that unlimited economic growth is impossible, to understand why conservation and environmentalism are indispensable to preserving civilization

LandfillFireExergyI would argue that most conservationists and environmentalists understand that we live in a world with limited resources (so unlimited growth is impossible); otherwise, they probably wouldn’t be conservationists or environmentalists in the first place. Since we live in a world with limited resources, small changes in behavior—in the aggregate—in addition to policies that bring about big changes are important in alleviating our propensity to increase entropy—or the unavailability of energy to produce work, thus goods and services. Consequently, extracting energy from renewable resources, consuming or using less goods and energy, thus generating less waste, are important in conserving energy within a closed system (e.g., Earth). However, this concept isn’t commonly or aggressively distributed by the media, politicians, or in our school systems.

For example, I find the complacency of relying on fossil fuels and the subsequent impacts of relying on fossil fuels extremely worrying. During the 2008 presidential elections a hot topic was offshore drilling. An alarming number of Americans believed (and many still do) that offshore drilling was an appropriate remedy to our energy woes. However, what happens when we exhaust offshore energy supplies? Therefore, shortsighted policies do nothing but exacerbate the problem. Consequently, save the offshore supplies for when we really need them, because to me, a smarter policy is modernizing the grid, utilizing as much renewable energy as possible, and getting gas-guzzlers off the road. Investing in appropriate technologies is important too. Furthermore, although the markets can foster change, the markets often bring change too late. Therefore, the federal government has a responsibility to drive policy. That policy should reflect the maximum sustainability that’s possible to achieve with current technology and resources. Considering the various competing interests, such a policy would be difficult to hammer out but certainly not impossible.

I believe utilizing more nuclear power has its problems as well—the biggest being nuclear waste. Drought is also the Achilles’ heel of nuclear power, so like coal-fired power plants, nuclear power relies heavily on water resources. Furthermore, I believe nuclear power is a lazy remedy to our energy woes. Nuclear power should be a tool to solve our energy crisis, but it shouldn’t be pursued aggressively.

Our current paradigm of development is undeniably unsustainable, and it’s unsustainable because we use energy unsustainably.  This behavior results in less energy for future generations and high energy prices.  Certainly, the economy of the United States can absorb high-energy prices but only to a particular amount and for a certain amount of time. Driving your family around in an inefficient vehicle such as an SUV might make you feel safe, but what type of world are you leaving your children?

For instance, when we burn coal it turns to ash, so the same amount of energy contained before the coal was burned can’t be extracted from the ash. The same applies when we extract crude oil and produce diesel, gasoline, kerosene, petroleum gas, or the many other products we create from crude oil. After these products are burned, the energy they contained before being used can’t be recaptured. Furthermore, burning these products produces pollution. Likewise, consuming food and drink provides fuel for our bodies, but the end product—or the waste—is essentially useless. Rusting iron and steel illustrates the entropic process as well.

The concept that unlimited growth is impossible, and we are limited by how much energy is available reflects the Second Law of Thermodynamics, especially the concept of entropy. More from Tushara Kodikara at Scoop.co.nz (emphasis added):

However, a litany of environmental problems, including destruction of the ozone layer, climate change, acid rain, deforestation, overpopulation, loss of biodiversity, soil erosion, desertification, floods, famine, overfishing, hazardous wastes, expanding landfills, fresh water depletion and the depletion of nonrenewable resources, to name a few, are symptoms of the shortcomings of the current economic system.

The planet is approximately in a steady state. Neither the mass nor the surface is growing or shrinking and the flows of energy inwards and outwards are roughly equal. Energy and matter enter the economy as inputs, are turned into goods and services, and leave as wastes. This flow is known as throughput.

Steady state economics draws from the work of Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen’s The Entropy Law and the Economic Process (1971). This explains how the second law of thermodynamics can be applied to the economy. In a closed system such as the planet, where the energy balance is around zero, the availability of useful energy decreases. Production of economic goods transforms matter-energy from a state of low entropy to a state of high entropy. Entropy is a measure of the disorder within a closed system.

The second law implies that matter can only be recycled a number of times and that energy can be recycled. However it takes more energy to do the recycling than the amount of energy being produced. The law also implies that creating order by means of producing goods will create greater disorder elsewhere in the environment. Therefore the entropy law puts a limit on how much we can produce. Therefore unlimited growth is impossible.

The planet’s interdependence has its limits too, and in turn limits growth. The environment provides vital services such as non-renewable resources which excessive economic growth exhausts. Forests, for example, can be considered as floating lakes. They hold topsoil in place, preventing erosion; help absorb rainwater, thereby preventing flooding; and they also remove carbon dioxide, produce oxygen and many other important ecological services. Deforestation removes all of these services.

However, in neoclassical economics, this forest can be turned into books on the topic of the ecological services of trees and people can go to the library and learn about the ecological services trees provide. This economic theory treats factors of production as substitutes; natural capital can be replaced by human capital or physical capital. If there is less of one (such as labour) it can be replaced by another (machinery) and you can still get the same output.

Before the industrial age, when the economy was small compared to the ecosystem, physical capital was the limiting factor. Fish in the sea were abundant. The number and capacity of fishing boats determined the catch size. Today however, Daly argues, the factors’ roles have changed—the economy has become very large relative to the ecosystem—making natural capital the limiting factor. The depleted fish stock in the sea will determine the number of fish that can be taken as opposed to the technologically advanced fishing fleet.

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Until recently, the world economy had been growing, and yet we still have extreme poverty. It should be obvious that what actually grows is the reinvested surplus, such as profits and the benefits of growth go to the owners of the surplus, who are not the poor.

Another argument of those who oppose the steady-state economy and think that the current system is the answer is that of technology being able to solve our problems. We shouldn’t worry about peak oil, as electric cars will become cheap and viable for everybody. However, there are a couple of issues here. There is a limited amount of platinum available in the world. This is an important component for the vehicle’s battery. There is not enough platinum to produce enough cars to replace the current petroleum-based vehicle fleet on the planet.

This blind faith that technology will solve all our problems is just that, blind faith. These solutions will be far more expensive than the preventive measures available. These solutions may in fact cause more problems rather than solving the current environment problems.

The most important point is that petroleum isn’t just used for fossil fuels. It is also an important chemical feedstock used in just about every produced good. It is literally the lubricant for the world’s economy. Under the current economic system, a substitute should be able to replace this vital feedstock. However, this substitute is not forthcoming.

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Exergy image found here.

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LEED CERTIFICATION federal prison welcomes convicted Ponzi schemer Bernie Madoff

The only LEED-certified federal prison is Bernie Madoff’s new home.

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SMART GRID: Computer modeling used to develop and test smart grid

Power GridA key ingredient for energy independence is the development of a smarter grid. A modernized and updated national power grid can improve efficiency, reduce grid congestion, and manage intermittent power sources like solar and wind. To develop and construct a smart grid—which is not an easy undertaking—computer modeling is being used. From InTech:

Distributed and intermittent electricity generation, such as wind power, is rapidly expanding, smart meters are giving consumers more control over their energy usage, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles may someday radically increase the overall demand for electricity. The evolution of America’s energy needs has forced scientists and engineers to re-examine the operations, efficiency, and security of the national power grid. The creation of a more secure and efficient national power grid requires significant innovations in the way we transmit electricity and monitor its use.

“Modeling and simulation have proved to be effective tools for the power industry on many levels,” said Mark Petri, U.S. Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratory’s technology development director during workshop on the issue.

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Through detailed simulations of how to supply and transfer electric power around the country, researchers can bolster not only the grid’s security but also its reliability, efficiency, and resiliency.

“Implementing smart grid technologies on a large scale will not be trivial,” Petri said. “The challenges go beyond technical and economic issues. The smart grid technologies could fundamentally change how national power grid systems operate and respond to disruptions.”

Because of the great diversity of ways in which electricity is created, distributed, and consumed, engineers face a challenge in creating reliable models of large power networks. They have to deal with the intermittent nature of some of the sources (like wind or solar), optimize how power is transmitted, and balance economic, security, and environmental priorities when finding solutions.

Click the image below to learn more about smart grid technology

Smart Grid


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ENERGY: FERC chairman Jon Wellinghoff takes energy policy in a new direction

offshore-windFederal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) chairman Jon Wellinghoff wants to promote energy efficiency and the use of more renewable energy, and he is rousing controversy with statements like “the United States may never need another nuclear or coal plant.”  Personally, I don’t want to see another coal or nuclear power plant constructed, but chairman Wellinghoff’s energy policy has to overcome certain challenges, and a new energy policy for the United States will require both innovation and political will.

Certainly, this change in energy policy will take massive restructuring and new infrastructure in order to use renewable energy such as wind and solar to meet baseload demand (and some energy analysts do not believe this is possible). Baseload demand refers to “the minimum amount of power that a utility or distribution company must make available to its customers, or the amount of power required to meet minimum demands based on reasonable expectations of customer requirements.” Currently, baseload demand is met primarily by coal and nuclear power plants, and it can be supplemented by peakers, which are “small plants that typically run on natural gas or diesel oil and produce between 5 and 50 megawatts (MW) . . . [while] baseload plants produce upwards of 1,000 MW. A MW of electricity is equivalent to the electricity for between 800 and 1,000 homes, depending upon their size.” Consequently, peakers are important because they “can react quickly to changes in demand and provide power to supplement that generated by base load stations.” Some renewable energy enthusiasts believe that “peakers can be replaced by solar power plants.”

In order to integrate more renewable energy into the power grid faster, the U.S. government can look to the European experience with renewables, since Europe has aggressively accepted renewables such as wind and solar. It doesn’t hurt having an open minded and progressive U.S. president either, since President Barack Obama recently announced, “Through the Department of Interior, we are establishing a program to authorize — for the first time — the leasing of federal waters for projects to generate electricity from wind as well as from ocean currents and other renewable sources.”

Another issue that must be overcome is a side effect created by an energy policy that is dominated by energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy—decreasing profits for public utilities, since energy efficiency results in lower energy bills. No doubt passing reasonable costs off to the consumer and changing business plans can alleviate this side effect.

Furthermore, in order to create a more efficient and uniform policy in getting renewable energy to homes, the federal government wants jurisdiction over transmission line siting (currently it’s with the states), but the “Fourth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals [recently] ruled that the 2005 Energy Policy Act does not give FERC the authority to overrule states on transmission line siting.” However, “a new draft bill unveiled by Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee majority staff yesterday would grant states first crack at siting ‘high priority’ national transmission line before allowing federal siting authority.” From The New York Times:

Wellinghoff’s comments last week drew praise from environmentalists but jarred the energy and nuclear industries. He said today that he hasn’t gotten a lot of feedback from industry or from top Obama administration officials about his remarks.

“There’s been a lot of positive comments with respect to the issues of increasing efficiency,” he said. “That’s the key that people seem to respond to.”

He said the biggest challenge to implementing his vision is transmission and “ensuring we have a transmission plan that covers … both the Eastern and Western interconnects.” The country needs to design the system in a way that will allow the delivery of low-cost renewables, such as wind, solar and geothermal, he added.

Not everyone agrees with Wellinghoff’s vision. Jerry Taylor, an energy expert at the libertarian Cato Institute, said he first paid attention to Wellinghoff when the chairman outlined his priorities earlier this month.

His belief that renewables like wind, solar and biomass will provide enough energy to meet baseload capacity and future energy demands and that baseload capacity is going to become an anachronism “struck me as crazy,” Taylor said.

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“The idea that half our energy will come from renewable fuels, not new plants … I think is just implausible,” Taylor said. “We hear over-the-top claims and statements about renewable energy on a near-daily basis, so I don’t take his comments particularly seriously. I think they’re part and parcel of rhetorical excess that comes in Washington from all sides.”


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