ENERGY: Do we have enough uranium for the proposed nuclearization of energy sources?

“Counting on new nuclear reactors as a climate change solution is no more sensible than counting on an un-built dam to create a lake to fight a nearby forest fire.”

Peter Bradford, former U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission member

Like coal, natural gas, and oil, uranium is a nonrenewable resource. Consequently, is uranium being depleted faster than we think? With all the talk of building and investing in so-called next generation nuclear reactors, is enough uranium available to meet this proposed new demand in addition to sustaining current demand? Some U.S. Senators are proposing that more nuclear energy is the answer to address our climate change and energy troubles.

U.S. Senators Jim Webb, a democrat from Virginia, and Lamar Alexander, a Republican from Tennessee, do not support the current cap-and-trade legislation, but these Senators are throwing their support behind nuclear power and carbon-capture-and-storage technology. Furthermore, “Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who is working with Democrat John Kerry on the bill, highlighted how France now derives 80 percent of its energy from nuclear power and is presently constructing a next-generation reactor, said to be the most advanced in the world.” More on dwindling uranium supplies from the Physics arXiv Blog:

The world is about to enter a period of unprecedented investment in nuclear power. The combined threats of climate change, energy security and fears over the high prices and dwindling reserves of oil are forcing governments towards the nuclear option. The perception is that nuclear power is a carbon-free technology, that it breaks our reliance on oil and that it gives governments control over their own energy supply.

That looks dangerously overoptimistic, says Michael Dittmar, from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich who publishes the final chapter of an impressive four-part analysis of the global nuclear industry on the arXiv today.

Perhaps the most worrying problem is the misconception that uranium is plentiful. The world’s nuclear plants today eat through some 65,000 tons of uranium each year. Of this, the mining industry supplies about 40,000 tons. The rest comes from secondary sources such as civilian and military stockpiles, reprocessed fuel and re-enriched uranium. “But without access to the military stocks, the civilian western uranium stocks will be exhausted by 2013, concludes Dittmar.

It’s not clear how the shortfall can be made up since nobody seems to know where the mining industry can look for more.

That means countries that rely on uranium imports such as Japan and many western countries will face uranium .shortages, possibly as soon as 2013. Far from being the secure source of energy that many governments are basing their future energy needs on, nuclear power looks decidedly rickety.

And from PhysOrg.com:

New York Times energy reporter Matthew Wald, writing in Technology Review, said new reactors would be unable to pay for themselves because of the massive cost of construction and competition from emerging alternatives that could affect the energy price. Wald compared the costs per kilowatt of capacity of nuclear ($4,000), coal ($3,000) and natural gas ($800), which makes the nuclear option a big financial gamble. The future cost of fossil fuels is unknown, and could also affect the nuclear industry’s viability.

Energy efficiency standards and renewable energy options are better solutions than the nuclearization of energy sources. From Los Angeles Times:

If the U.S. wants to help stop global warming, nuclear power is not the way to go, according to a new report released today.

The Environment California Research & Policy Center concluded that launching a nuclear power industry nearly from the ground up is too slow and expensive a process. Energy efficiency standards and renewable energy options are better solutions, researchers said.

.       .       .

But even if the nuclear industry managed to build 100 reactors by 2030, the total power produced would reduce total U.S. emissions only 12% over the next 20 years, which Environment California deemed “far too little, too late.”

The $600-billion upfront investment necessary for the 100 reactors would slice out twice as much carbon pollution in that period if invested in clean energy, according to the report. And given the costs of running a power plant, clean energy could deliver five times as much progress per dollar in lowering pollution.

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OFFSHORE DRILLING is not worth the risks

Energy PolicyOffshore DrillingRecently, “democrats in the US Senate . . . voted against an attempt by Republicans to keep a plan to allow oil and gas drilling along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts.”

Certainly, the push for offshore drilling by conservatives and republicans isn’t prudent energy policy. Offshore drilling is also shortsighted policy that doesn’t result in energy independence, so these offshore nonrenewable energy reserves should be preserved.

Furthermore, offshore drilling has seemingly insignificant but cumulative negative ecological impacts in addition to major negative ecological impacts. More from Dan DeWitt via Tampabay.com:

We would be able to see those rigs, of course, but not the releases of mercury and other toxins in the “mud” used to lubricate drill bits. There could be devastating spills such as the one coming from a wellhead (a modern, high-tech one, by the way) that is currently spewing thousands of barrels per day off the coast of Australia, or smaller ones that in the United States account for a total of 3,898 barrels, on average, every year, according to an industry group.

Drilling so close to shore means these spills would go directly into estuaries and seagrass beds off Hernando and Citrus that are vital to the gulf’s fishery.

BREAK

Drill Here Drill NowNewt Gingrich exhibits a lack of prudence by dishonestly blaming our energy crisis on “anti-energy, left-leaning politicians”:

Who are the “influential people” who “helped create the energy crisis in the first place” Gingrich and Haley blame? Is it BushCheneyHalliburtonEnronExxon MobilPeabody CoalTom DeLayJohn McCainhedge-fund speculators, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich himself, or others in the conservative elite who have profited from skyrocketing energy prices and prevented change while American families suffered?

Nope! The villians in Newtland are “anti-energy, left-leaning politicians.”

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PEAK OIL: You should be worried

Peak OilWe use oil throughout society. For example, it’s in the goods we use, and it supplies energy to make our cars move. No doubt, as a civilization, we’ve been lucky to have access to crude oil as a cheap and readily accessible energy source, because it has spurred economic growth and technological innovation. We even use oil to produce and deliver wind turbines and solar panels, and these things in turn capture renewable energy. However, reliance on this cheap energy source has its consequences, so perhaps oil has made things too easy.

As a result, there are several reasons why we can’t continue to burn fossil fuels: (1) it’s a nonrenewable energy source with a high energy content, so it should be strategically conserved and used as needed; (2) burning oil, or the products that are made from crude oil such as gasoline and diesel, release pollutants into the atmosphere, thus making the air we breathe dirty (Los Angeles is synonymous to congested traffic and the resulting smog); and (3) carbon dioxide is released when we burn fossil fuels such as oil, and increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide creates a warming effect. No doubt, in order to avoid economic and social crises, the smartest policy would be to quickly move away from our dependency on oil. Certainly, passing substantive climate change legislation, modernizing our electricity grid to a smarter grid, implementing meaningful renewable energy portfolios, and producing sustainable alternative fuels, in addition to promoting energy conservation, can be remedies to our dependency on oil and alleviate the pain of peak oil. From Roger Diamond:

Peak oil follows this scenario as there is a finite amount of oil in the earth and until now we have been producing more and more every day, which has allowed economic growth based on growth in available energy and oil being the primary energy source for our society. Between 2005 and 2015 we have or will probably experience peak oil. From then on, energy is not so easy to get.

.       .       .

Peak oil is not about suddenly having no power and no goods — it’s about having less and working harder to get that smaller amount. Enter EROEI — energy return on energy invested. The original large oil reservoirs exploited in the first half of the 20th century had EROEI of over 100:1. That means for every joule of energy you spent digging, drilling, processing and transporting you got more than 100 joules in return. It’s a bit like working for one hour and being paid enough money to cover your expenses for 100 hours. The easy life!

EROEI on oil shales, tar sands, deep oil and other remaining oil-like resources is less than 10:1 and even down at levels like 3:1 or worse. The results of this are that high-energy activities or products are going to go up in price, substantially. Think of flying, cement, aluminium, cars, hi-tech gadgetry, imported goods and virtually everything we take for granted in the average suburban Westernised existence.

Your life is going to change and the sooner you can prepare yourself for it, the better. This is not a doomsday prediction of instant civil war and living off cans of dog food. Just be warned that the oil age will wane and our lives will change along with it. Maybe for the better?! It all depends on our capacity to work and change together.

Peak OilMore peak oil analysis comes from Lester Brown at TreeHugger:

One way the oil prospect can be analyzed is by separating the world’s principal oil-producing countries into two groups—those where production is falling and those where it is still rising—is illuminating. Of the 23 leading oil producers, output appears to have peaked in 15 and to still be rising in eight. The post-peak countries range from the United States (the only country other than Saudi Arabia to ever pump more than 9 million barrels of oil per day) and Venezuela (where oil production peaked in 1970) to the two North Sea oil producers, the United Kingdom and Norway, where production peaked in 1999 and 2000 respectively. U.S. oil output, which peaked at 9.6 million barrels a day in 1970, dropped to 5.4 million barrels a day in 2004—a fall of 44 percent. Venezuela’s output has dropped 31 percent since 1970.

The eight pre-peak countries are dominated by the world’s leading oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Other countries with substantial potential for increasing production are Canada, largely because of its tar sands, and Kazakhstan, which is still developing its oil resources. The other four pre-peak countries are Algeria, Angola, China, and Mexico.

The biggest question mark among these eight countries is Saudi Arabia. Its production technically peaked in 1980 at 9.9 million barrels a day and output is now nearly 1 million barrels a day below that. It is included as a country with rising production only on the basis of statements by Saudi officials that the country could produce far more. However, some analysts doubt whether the Saudis can raise output much beyond its current production. Some of its older oil fields are largely depleted, and it remains to be seen whether pumping from new fields will be sufficient to more than offset the loss from the old ones.

This analysis comes down to whether production will actually increase enough in the eight pre-peak countries to offset the declines under way in the 15 countries where production has already peaked. In volume of output, the two groups have essentially the same total production capacity. If production begins to fall in any one of the eight, however, world output could decline.

Another way to consider oil production prospects is to look at the actions of the major oil companies themselves. While some CEOs sound very bullish about the growth of future production, their actions suggest a less confident outlook.

One bit of evidence of this is the decision by leading oil companies to invest heavily in buying up their own stocks. ExxonMobil, for example, with the largest quarterly profit of any company on record—$10.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2005—invested nearly $10 billion in buying back its own stock. ChevronTexaco used $2.5 billion of its profits to buy back stock. With little new oil to be discovered and world oil demand growing fast, companies appear to be realizing that their reserves will become even more valuable in the future.

Closely related to this behavior is the lack of any substantial increases in exploration and development in 2005 even with oil prices well above $50 a barrel. This suggests that the companies agree with petroleum geologists who say that 95 percent of all the oil in the world has already been discovered. “The whole world has now been seismically searched and picked over,” says independent geologist Colin Campbell. “Geological knowledge has improved enormously in the past 30 years and it is almost inconceivable now that major fields remain to be found.” This also implies that it may take a lot of costly exploration and drilling to find that remaining 5 percent.

Images found here and here

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CONSERVATION TIP #1: Understand that unlimited economic growth is impossible, to understand why conservation and environmentalism are indispensable to preserving civilization

LandfillFireExergyI would argue that most conservationists and environmentalists understand that we live in a world with limited resources (so unlimited growth is impossible); otherwise, they probably wouldn’t be conservationists or environmentalists in the first place. Since we live in a world with limited resources, small changes in behavior—in the aggregate—in addition to policies that bring about big changes are important in alleviating our propensity to increase entropy—or the unavailability of energy to produce work, thus goods and services. Consequently, extracting energy from renewable resources, consuming or using less goods and energy, thus generating less waste, are important in conserving energy within a closed system (e.g., Earth). However, this concept isn’t commonly or aggressively distributed by the media, politicians, or in our school systems.

For example, I find the complacency of relying on fossil fuels and the subsequent impacts of relying on fossil fuels extremely worrying. During the 2008 presidential elections a hot topic was offshore drilling. An alarming number of Americans believed (and many still do) that offshore drilling was an appropriate remedy to our energy woes. However, what happens when we exhaust offshore energy supplies? Therefore, shortsighted policies do nothing but exacerbate the problem. Consequently, save the offshore supplies for when we really need them, because to me, a smarter policy is modernizing the grid, utilizing as much renewable energy as possible, and getting gas-guzzlers off the road. Investing in appropriate technologies is important too. Furthermore, although the markets can foster change, the markets often bring change too late. Therefore, the federal government has a responsibility to drive policy. That policy should reflect the maximum sustainability that’s possible to achieve with current technology and resources. Considering the various competing interests, such a policy would be difficult to hammer out but certainly not impossible.

I believe utilizing more nuclear power has its problems as well—the biggest being nuclear waste. Drought is also the Achilles’ heel of nuclear power, so like coal-fired power plants, nuclear power relies heavily on water resources. Furthermore, I believe nuclear power is a lazy remedy to our energy woes. Nuclear power should be a tool to solve our energy crisis, but it shouldn’t be pursued aggressively.

Our current paradigm of development is undeniably unsustainable, and it’s unsustainable because we use energy unsustainably.  This behavior results in less energy for future generations and high energy prices.  Certainly, the economy of the United States can absorb high-energy prices but only to a particular amount and for a certain amount of time. Driving your family around in an inefficient vehicle such as an SUV might make you feel safe, but what type of world are you leaving your children?

For instance, when we burn coal it turns to ash, so the same amount of energy contained before the coal was burned can’t be extracted from the ash. The same applies when we extract crude oil and produce diesel, gasoline, kerosene, petroleum gas, or the many other products we create from crude oil. After these products are burned, the energy they contained before being used can’t be recaptured. Furthermore, burning these products produces pollution. Likewise, consuming food and drink provides fuel for our bodies, but the end product—or the waste—is essentially useless. Rusting iron and steel illustrates the entropic process as well.

The concept that unlimited growth is impossible, and we are limited by how much energy is available reflects the Second Law of Thermodynamics, especially the concept of entropy. More from Tushara Kodikara at Scoop.co.nz (emphasis added):

However, a litany of environmental problems, including destruction of the ozone layer, climate change, acid rain, deforestation, overpopulation, loss of biodiversity, soil erosion, desertification, floods, famine, overfishing, hazardous wastes, expanding landfills, fresh water depletion and the depletion of nonrenewable resources, to name a few, are symptoms of the shortcomings of the current economic system.

The planet is approximately in a steady state. Neither the mass nor the surface is growing or shrinking and the flows of energy inwards and outwards are roughly equal. Energy and matter enter the economy as inputs, are turned into goods and services, and leave as wastes. This flow is known as throughput.

Steady state economics draws from the work of Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen’s The Entropy Law and the Economic Process (1971). This explains how the second law of thermodynamics can be applied to the economy. In a closed system such as the planet, where the energy balance is around zero, the availability of useful energy decreases. Production of economic goods transforms matter-energy from a state of low entropy to a state of high entropy. Entropy is a measure of the disorder within a closed system.

The second law implies that matter can only be recycled a number of times and that energy can be recycled. However it takes more energy to do the recycling than the amount of energy being produced. The law also implies that creating order by means of producing goods will create greater disorder elsewhere in the environment. Therefore the entropy law puts a limit on how much we can produce. Therefore unlimited growth is impossible.

The planet’s interdependence has its limits too, and in turn limits growth. The environment provides vital services such as non-renewable resources which excessive economic growth exhausts. Forests, for example, can be considered as floating lakes. They hold topsoil in place, preventing erosion; help absorb rainwater, thereby preventing flooding; and they also remove carbon dioxide, produce oxygen and many other important ecological services. Deforestation removes all of these services.

However, in neoclassical economics, this forest can be turned into books on the topic of the ecological services of trees and people can go to the library and learn about the ecological services trees provide. This economic theory treats factors of production as substitutes; natural capital can be replaced by human capital or physical capital. If there is less of one (such as labour) it can be replaced by another (machinery) and you can still get the same output.

Before the industrial age, when the economy was small compared to the ecosystem, physical capital was the limiting factor. Fish in the sea were abundant. The number and capacity of fishing boats determined the catch size. Today however, Daly argues, the factors’ roles have changed—the economy has become very large relative to the ecosystem—making natural capital the limiting factor. The depleted fish stock in the sea will determine the number of fish that can be taken as opposed to the technologically advanced fishing fleet.

.       .       .

Until recently, the world economy had been growing, and yet we still have extreme poverty. It should be obvious that what actually grows is the reinvested surplus, such as profits and the benefits of growth go to the owners of the surplus, who are not the poor.

Another argument of those who oppose the steady-state economy and think that the current system is the answer is that of technology being able to solve our problems. We shouldn’t worry about peak oil, as electric cars will become cheap and viable for everybody. However, there are a couple of issues here. There is a limited amount of platinum available in the world. This is an important component for the vehicle’s battery. There is not enough platinum to produce enough cars to replace the current petroleum-based vehicle fleet on the planet.

This blind faith that technology will solve all our problems is just that, blind faith. These solutions will be far more expensive than the preventive measures available. These solutions may in fact cause more problems rather than solving the current environment problems.

The most important point is that petroleum isn’t just used for fossil fuels. It is also an important chemical feedstock used in just about every produced good. It is literally the lubricant for the world’s economy. Under the current economic system, a substitute should be able to replace this vital feedstock. However, this substitute is not forthcoming.

Photo source for attribution here and here. The authors or licensors of these images do not endorse my work or me and their images are protected under an attribution license.

Exergy image found here.

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QUOTE

Oil Addiction3One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day.

The earlier we start, the better, because all of our economic and social system is based on oil so to change from that will take a lot of time and a lot of money and we should take this issue very seriously.

Dr Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency


Photo source for attribution. The author or licensor of this image does not endorse my work or me and their image is protected under an attribution license.

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